AP Human Geography Pathfinder

Topic: Predicting Large Earthquakes

Question: Are earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater predictable?

Search Terms: earthquakes, quakes, tremors, volcanic activity, seismic activity, predictable, projection, forecast, magnitude, size, probability, archives, list

Objective: Find a valid statistical database that will provide a list of earthquakes of 7.0 and higher from 1900 – 2007.

Search Strategy: Use the search terms listed above and combine them to search Google or another search engine to locate valid earthquake data sources. (Note Google supports the + sign. Other databases may require the word <and> to be spelled out.

Capture and use more specific search terms from your first relevant database and search other databases.

Narrowing the Topic: possibilities = world region, continent, dates, magnitude, city

Specific Data Source Confirmation: Search one or more of the above databases using relevant search terms to confirm that you have found a listing of 7.0 or higher earthquakes from 1900 – 2007.

Measurement and Evaluation: Record the number of earthquakes for each year that were 7.0 or higher from 1900 – 2007. Aggregate, graph, display, evaluate and present the data.

Conclusion: Conclude whether earthquakes 7.0 or higher are predictable.

Statistical Sources

To access statistical sources, you will be using the library's Delicious account.

Delicious is a Web site that allows anyone to create a login and then bookmark interesting Web sites. These sites can be organized by short subject headings, called "tags" for easy retrieval.

Start by looking at all Web sites marked with the tag "statistics." Use the link below to access this tag:

http://delicious.com/NCS.Library/statistics

Search for relevant sites on your topic by clicking on "related tags" at the right of the screen. Notice the breadcrumb trail at the top of the screen. This lets you know that the web sites listed on the screen below contain these tags: Click on the next to a tag to remove it from your search.

Note: Make sure that you are accessing sites with the "statistics" tag, otherwise the web sites will not be relevant too you for this projects.

You can also search for tags in the box at the top right of the screen. Use a plus sign with no spaces between tags to search more than one tag at a time. e.g. statistics+crime

The results screen will show NCS.Library's bookmarks as well as "Everyone's bookmarks," which are the bookmarks of all Delicious users.

Evaluation Criteria

• Reliable and unbiased - Beware of statistics gathered through surveys. They may not always be as accurate as one would like. Both researchers and respondents are sources and can be either biased or unreliable.
• Authoritative - Consider whether the source is authoritative for the time being measured.
• Mostly Statistics: the data in the source should consist of statistics and only statistics.
• Complete data: there are no missing tables or citations to other sources.
• Statistics to Avoid: flawed analysis, lack of context, flawed methodology, and trick words

Prepared by C. Chase, L. Lennon & K. Craver 11/08

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